VUCA & BANI Walk Into a Bar in 2030
I had recently come across the term VUCA. Which is an acronym for volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous.
Having been in leadership roles majority of my ‘big’ career and having jumped head first into the whole leadership of the future revolution I was surprised there was an acronym out there that I didn’t know.
VUCA is a framework made popular in the late 1980s (originating in the military—like most systems and frameworks do) and later adopted into the business world.
VUCA was a helpful tool that assisted leaders in navigating the world around us—as volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous as it was.
It was classically picked up by the big global consulting firms like McKinsey, Deloitte and Bain & Company in the 1990S and early 2000s. Not to mention, Jack Welch—General Electrics legendary CEO, IBM and the World Economic Forum in the mid-2010s—connecting the dots to AI, climate change and of course economic uncertainty.
And now, over 4 decades later since VUCA was introduce, there has been another shift.
The new and improved BANI framework.
B = Brittle
A = Anxious
N = Nonlinear
I = Incomprehensible
Coined by the famous futurist, Jamais Casico in 2018, BANI aimed to capture the fractured, erratic nature of our modern reality and the unique challenges of our world.
As a part of this shifting framework, evolved the need for a new leadership style.
The Futurecaster.
Defined by Forbes, a Futurecaster is a leader who engages their team with a compelling vision and empowers them to thrive through change while driving forward progress.
Futurecasters have five core competencies. They are visionary, agile, innovative, relational and above all resilient. Many have referred to ‘Futurecasters’ as the antidote to our BANI world.
But this got me thinking, the world is fast moving and evolving, VUCA is obsolete, eventually BANI will no longer fit the bill, so what is next?
2030 Has Entered the Bar
Within a short 5 years we will be sitting in a new decade, 2030.
Although I do not have a crystal ball and cannot predict exactly what frameworks will be in place and what needs will need to be resolved, the year 2025 has given us some pretty good indication of the future—the future of work and the future of leadership.
By the end of the decade, leaders will face new challenges that current models may not fully address. AI-driven workplaces, decentralized organizations, and an increasingly fluid global economy will demand a different kind of leadership.
The next framework needs to embrace complexity, ethics, and long-term impact while integrating technology and human-centered leadership.
And this is where I propose: FIRM—Fluidity, Integrity, Regeneration, and Meaning—as the next evolution of leadership thinking.
Fluidity – Leaders must be comfortable in a world where rigid hierarchies no longer work, and roles, industries, and organizations shift constantly.
Integrity – With AI and automation shaping decision-making, ethical leadership and transparency will be critical.
Regeneration – Sustainability (both environmental and organizational) will take center stage. Leaders must build organizations that restore.
Meaning – As work becomes more automated, employees will seek purpose over productivity. Leaders will need to create cultures that foster meaning and connection.
When I was defining FIRM I built upon current trends and predictions, from regenerative leadership, ethical AI governance, sustainability, and the rise of more purpose-driven organizations.
The Building Blocks of FIRM
The FIRM framework represents a forward-thinking approach to leadership and is meant to be less reactive and more deliberate. Providing leaders with the tools to shape the future rather than just survive it.
Fluidity
Fluidity is about adaptability, not just at an organizational level but also within the way we lead, build team structures, and make decisions.
Research from the Boston Consulting Group shows that high-performing leadership teams exhibit "role fluidity," where members move between responsibilities based on need rather than hierarchy. Think skill-based organizations, an emphasis on professional and personal development.
Additionally, a study published in Frontiers in Psychology found that teams with flexible membership structures perform better under uncertainty. Think non-traditional, non-linear career paths.
Instead of viewing change as a disruption, fluid leaders anticipate it, build adaptable teams, and encourage continuous skill development.
Integrity
With AI helping to make more business decisions, trust and ethical leadership are becoming critical differentiators.
Leaders must embed ethical AI governance to ensure transparency and fairness.
And things like trust-based leadership will become a competitive advantage, as employees and consumers alike demand more accountability from businesses.
Integrity is no longer just about compliance—it’s about authenticity, ethical foresight, and taking responsibility for long-term impact.
Regeneration
Sustainability will no longer be enough.
Businesses of the future will need to be regenerative, actively restoring ecosystems, economies, and social structures.
Regenerative business models go beyond reducing harm; they create net-positive impact.
Companies like Unilever and Nestlé are already investing in regenerative agriculture, proving that business success and ecological restoration can go hand in hand.
Future leaders will need to integrate economy principles, social and long-term health into their strategies.
Meaning
The leaders of 2030 won’t just drive profits—they’ll cultivate purpose within their organizations.
Research consistently shows that employees who find meaning in their work are more engaged, productive, and loyal. We’re already seeing employees take charge of their careers and saying yes to more portfolio style careers—that give them control over who they work for and what they do.
Additionally, the younger generation (and I would argue other generations) will demand authentic mission-driven companies, leaders must integrate purpose into decision-making, culture, and strategy.
Organizations that thrive will be those that align financial success with meaningful impact.
How Can Leaders Prepare for 2030
By making efforts to understand and transition to the FIRM framework, leaders and organizations will need to take deliberate steps today—for tomorrow.
1. Shifting from Hierarchies to More Fluid Teams:
Embrace Agility: As we move into 2030, traditional hierarchical structures may become less effective. Leaders can prepare by implementing more agile, cross-functional teams where collaboration is prioritized over rigid reporting lines. This structure supports innovation and responsiveness in an ever-changing landscape.
Decentralized Decision-Making: Empower teams at all levels to make decisions. Leaders should invest in tools and systems that facilitate quick communication and decision-making without having to go through multiple layers of approval.
Foster a Collaborative Culture: Encourage a culture where knowledge-sharing and mentorship are valued over formal titles. In this environment, leaders should focus on developing the emotional intelligence of their teams to enable deeper collaboration and problem-solving.
Key Questions to Ask:
Are our team structures designed to be flexible and adaptable to change?
How can we break down silos and encourage cross-functional collaboration across departments?
Are we empowering teams at all levels to make decisions, and do they have the tools they need to succeed?
How are we measuring and fostering collaboration and communication within teams?
Are we investing in developing the emotional intelligence and leadership skills needed for fluid, decentralized teams?
To succeed, leaders should create agile, cross-functional teams and decentralize decision-making. This requires fostering a culture of collaboration where knowledge-sharing and mentorship are prioritized over formal titles.
2. Ethics and AI Integration:
Prioritize Ethical AI Practices: With AI continuing to revolutionize industries, leaders must integrate ethical considerations into AI strategy. This means implementing transparent, unbiased AI systems that protect privacy, ensure fairness, and are aligned with human values.
Develop Ethical Decision-Making Frameworks: Leaders should create frameworks that prioritize ethics in decision-making at all levels. This includes addressing biases, maintaining transparency, and ensuring that decisions contribute positively to society.
Establish Clear Governance Models: As AI and technology evolve, so should the governance around it. Leaders need to create policies that address accountability, transparency, and ethical dilemmas when using AI tools, especially when decisions impact employees, customers, or stakeholders.
As technology, especially AI, continues to advance, leaders must ensure that ethical considerations are deeply embedded into their decision-making processes, particularly regarding the use of AI.
Key Questions to Ask:
How are we ensuring ethical considerations are integrated into our AI strategies and tools?
Are our AI systems transparent and free from bias, and how are we monitoring this?
Do our employees understand the ethical implications of AI and its usage within our organization?
What governance structures do we have in place to ensure that AI and technology are used responsibly?
Are we regularly assessing the societal impacts of our decisions and the ethical standards we uphold?
Leaders should implement transparent, unbiased AI systems and create governance models that prioritize ethics. This includes ensuring AI is used responsibly, ethically, and in a way that positively impacts both the business and society.
3. Going Beyond Sustainability to Regenerative Actions:
Prioritize Ethical AI Practices: With AI continuing to revolutionize industries, leaders must integrate ethical considerations into AI strategy. This means implementing transparent, unbiased AI systems that protect privacy, ensure fairness, and are aligned with human values.
Develop Ethical Decision-Making Frameworks: Leaders should create frameworks that prioritize ethics in decision-making at all levels. This includes addressing biases, maintaining transparency, and ensuring that decisions contribute positively to society.
Establish Clear Governance Models: As AI and technology evolve, so should the governance around it. Leaders need to create policies that address accountability, transparency, and ethical dilemmas when using AI tools, especially when decisions impact employees, customers, or stakeholders.
Key Questions to Ask:
Are we committed to regenerative practices that contribute positively to the environment and society?
How are we implementing circular economy principles in our supply chain and product design?
What steps are we taking to restore and regenerate the ecosystems we impact through our business activities?
Are we prioritizing long-term environmental sustainability alongside our business goals?
How can we ensure that our organization is contributing to societal well-being beyond profit generation?
Organizations should focus on circular economy principles, restoration of ecosystems, and long-term environmental goals, aiming to have a positive impact on the world rather than just reducing harm.
4. Giving More Meaning to Impact – What’s the Larger Mission (Beyond Profit)?:
Define a Purpose Beyond Profit: Organizations will need to have a clear and compelling mission that goes beyond profit. Leaders should clarify their organization's mission, adopt new methods for measuring success, and ensure it’s embedded in all operations, decision-making, and corporate culture.
Lead with Values: Leaders should ensure that their values are integrated into the organization’s mission and culture. Aligning profit goals with a sense of purpose fosters loyalty, drives employee engagement, and helps organizations stay relevant in a world increasingly focused on meaning over material success.
Key Questions to Ask:
What is our organization’s mission, and does it go beyond just profit-making?
How can we align our profit goals with a broader sense of purpose and social responsibility?
Are we measuring our impact not only in financial terms but also in social, environmental, and cultural terms (e.g employee well-being).
Do our stakeholders (employees, customers, investors) understand and resonate with our mission and values?
How can we ensure our mission and values are consistently reflected in every aspect of our operations?
By emphasizing purpose over profit, organizations can create deeper connections with customers, employees, and investors, making their impact more meaningful and sustainable.
Other Considerations
Leading through change and future planning
Creating a transparent and accountable culture
Embracing technology and innovation
Key Questions to Ask:
How prepared are we to navigate the uncertainties and challenges ahead, and do we have the skills, knowledge, and resources to lead through significant transitions?
How can we foster a culture of resilience, where failure is viewed as a learning opportunity, and encourage continuous growth and adaptation within the organization?
How can we ensure transparency with our teams and stakeholders, and how are we seeking feedback to stay aligned with their needs and concerns?
How do we hold ourselves accountable for our commitments to ethics, sustainability, and social impact while empowering employees to take ownership and contribute to decision-making?
How are we staying ahead of technological advancements and embracing digital transformation to enhance efficiency, customer experiences, and drive growth, while upskilling our workforce for the future?
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